GenCast

GenCast is a next-generation AI-based weather forecasting model designed for weather agencies, renewable energy companies, and organizations focused on food security and disaster response. It provides better forecasts of both day-to-day weather and extreme events than traditional models. GenCast is part of Google's growing suite of AI-based weather models, aiming to improve forecasting and serve society.
GenCast works by using a diffusion model adapted to the spherical geometry of the Earth, learning to accurately generate the complex probability distribution of future weather scenarios. It provides an ensemble forecast, expressing uncertainty by making multiple predictions that represent different possible scenarios. GenCast was trained on four decades of historical weather data and showed better forecasting skill than the top operational ensemble forecasting system.
Weather agencies, renewable energy companies, and organizations focused on food security and disaster response get the most value from GenCast. It helps them make informed decisions, ensure safety, and improve their way of life by providing accurate and trustworthy forecasts. GenCast's ensemble forecast can be used to predict extreme weather events, such as cyclones, and provide a fuller picture of possible weather conditions in the coming days and weeks.